Everyday Homicides in the nation Decline 37% In President Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics

The average number of per-day killings per month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new administrative figures. But, security specialists have cautioned that homicide data may not point to better national safety.

Notable Reduction in Daily Averages

There was an average of close to 55 murders a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President took the leadership in September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had over these months is very significant,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that last month the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Fierce drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised operations to confront the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over 4x greater than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main components of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers urged caution that relying on homicide statistics to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is notably true in light of the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be very good information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for estimating the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it could obscure days when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average renders surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme bloodshed, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas remarked.