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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often acts as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

But the current competition is profoundly different. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still