Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
