Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.