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A former special forces colonel, government minister Al Carns was this week on manouevres cautioning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is at Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he said, in comments that exceed previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we rally the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was stark language from the middle-aged born in Scotland MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of minister for the military.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being over-promoted as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and shrewdness to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the 2024 election. He was promoted later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a high flyer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”